Weekly Review

October 1, 2016


Stopgap Spending Bill Opens Door for Another Year-End Omnibus
On Wednesday night, we voted on a short-term spending bill, called a Continuing Resolution (CR), that will fund government through December 8th. In essence, a CR takes what we spent last year and authorizes spending at the same monthly rate for as long as the resolution lasts - in this case, just over 2 months. The bill passed 342 to 85, and I voted no. Let me give you a few reasons why I voted as I did.

This bill opens the door for a big spending party in December. The problem is that it will be with your money. In fact, what happens when you combine a lame duck Congress with wanting to go home for Christmas? Answer... the taxpayer gets hurt. Members of Congress will gladly sacrifice to a bit more spending for the chance to leave Washington and be home for the Holidays. Combine this with a lame duck president, and you end up with a spending bias on steroids. I don't know what it will look like, but whatever comes for funding government into the new year will not look good for the taxpayer when the decisions for dealing with it are deferred to the holiday season.

The bill was also not paid for - which means part of its cost gets added straight to the deficit and debt. Since this constraint wasn’t in there, even parts of the bill that are supposedly paid for are in fact not. Indeed, nearly 98% of the claimed spending reductions in the bill are creative in the way they attempt to show government “savings.” As an example, the bill used a $7 billion cut from the Crime Victims account as a “pay-for,” - the problem is that this is done each year. Money is put into the fund annually, only to be borrowed again the next year. This is hardly what most would consider a cut to government that pays for additions to its size elsewhere. In fact, this $7 billion has been re-used for more than a decade to pay for other spending.

On holding the line on budget caps, it failed. If the bill lasted a whole year, it would spend more than $1.2 trillion, which is $102 billion above the current budget caps. To put that number in perspective, $102 billion is about seven times the size of the state budget of South Carolina. Going over by this amount is anything but a rounding error.

Of course, there was also good in this bill, as there are in most any. For example, the Military Construction-VA bill made its way through so-called “regular order” and was included in the CR. Zika funding was included, even if not paid for and far above the House’s number. There was money for the flood in Louisiana and 14 other named disasters, and the list goes on...but on the whole, the bill spent more than it should and set us up for what I can only imagine will be a spending spree in December. Accordingly, I voted as I did.


September 26
:

Prohibiting Future Ransom Payments to Iran: Last week, the House voted on H.R. 5931, the Prohibiting Future Ransom Payments to Iran Act, a bill that would stop the administration from paying ransoms to Iran. The bill passed 254 to 163 with bipartisan support, and I voted yes.

As I wrote back in August, there is a long-standing American policy not to reward terrorists or kidnappers with payments…and if the ransom payment to Iran isn’t breaching that, I don’t know what does. While the release of four Americans is certainly something to celebrate, rewarding this behavior acts as an incentive to continue it. Indeed, two Iranian Americans have been arrested since January - not to mention several others from different countries.

Administration officials have stated that the timing of payments going into Tehran was a coincidence. As much as I believe that people’s motives or honesty are attacked too often in politics, the timing of the release and the payment is far too convenient for this explanation to ring true.

The overarching issue to me is the lengths that the administration seemed to go in order to finalize a bad deal. From weakened demands in the Iran nuclear deal - remember the “anywhere, anytime” inspection demands that didn’t happen - to a literal cash drop of hundreds of millions in non-US currency (because any transaction with Iran in US dollars is illegal), there have been accommodations across the board.

In this vein, the bill last week represented one more of Congress’ attempts to push back against the ongoing concessions that seem to have been part and parcel of the president’s Iran deal.


September 27
:

Low Interest Rates Not Equal to Sustained Economic GrowthDid you happen to catch what Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, said yesterday in Brussels? His words were that, “very low rates for a very long time do have side effects” and that low rates alone were not enough to deliver real and sustained economic growth in the long term. He went on to talk about how important other policies were to complementing any central bank’s action.

I've said many times in many different ways that we’re sleepwalking our way towards a financial crisis, and I think that this slow trickle of admission by central bankers that indeed they can’t carry the load in stimulating the economy forever should serve as a wake-up call to policymakers in Washington or other capitals around the world.

Unless we have debt reduction, tax reform, regulatory reform, and a number of other things changed on a policy front, Draghi will be proven correct in his recognition of the inability of central bank maneuvering to create sustained economic growth...and we will also see the profound side effects in keeping rates low for a long time.

Current side effects include robbing every saver in this country of the compounding of wealth and the security in retirement that should accompany saving and sacrifice over their lives. Without policy change, the next effect that we will soon see is the real cost of government debt (that has been masked by central banks keeping rates artificially low), as economies around this world cool.


September 28
:

House Passes the Water Resources Development Act: The House just finished voting on the Water Resources Development Act. I voted for it, and it passed by a vote of 399 to 25.

There’s a larger conversation about the full bill that I’ll get to a tomorrow, but one of the amendments offered was of particular note, and I wanted to touch on it. The Kildee/Moolenaar amendment, in the end, would provide $170 million in emergency funding for Flint, Michigan communities with lead-contaminated drinking water. I did not vote for this amendment, but it passed by a vote of 284 to 141. You can read more on the amendment here.

In spite of the addition of the Flint amendment, the other 95 percent of the bill had a lot of good in it. As it relates to trade, the widening of the Panama Canal will prove important, as it impacts trade flows to and from our country. Infrastructure on this front is vital, and accordingly I spoke on the bill this week. Give it a watch, if you’d like to learn a bit more about what I think on the legislation.

 


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