Eight Michigan counties now have a seven-day positivity rate of more than 10% on coronavirus diagnostic tests, a benchmark the federal Centers for Disease Control says is a problematic warning sign.
Those eight counties: Muskegon, Calhoun, Van Buren, Cass, Delta, Gogebic, Dickinson and Ontonagon. The latter four are in the Upper Peninsula.
Meanwhile, 70 of Michigan’s 83 counties are at the state’s highest risk level on a different metric: The seven-day average for per-capita new cases.
In total, the state has reported 18,358 cases in the past seven days compared to 11,771 the week before, a 36% increase.
Meanwhile, the state’s seven-day average positivity rate on coronavirus tests is now 6.5%, up from 4.9% a week ago.
The seven-day average for per-capita cases and test positivity rates are two of the metrics used by MDHHS in assessing coronavirus risk levels.
State’s eight MI Start regions
MDHHS has six levels - “low” plus Levels A-E -- and assigns an overall score to the state’s eight regions based on factors such as per-capita cases, test positivity rates, number of tests administered, deaths and emergency department visits for COVID-19 symptoms.
The Upper Peninsula is the only region currently at Level E, the highest level and one that indicates dangerous levels of coronavirus transmission.
The Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo regions are now at Level D; the Detroit, Saginaw and Jackson regions are at Level C, and the Traverse City region is at Level B.
Starting this week, MLive is applying the state’s metrics to two specific criteria -- daily new case numbers and testing positivity rates --- to individual counties to help readers track coronavirus transmission in their community.
Note that MDHHS has different cutoffs than MLive maps used in recent weeks, and those calculations are also based on the number per 1 million residents vs. per 100,000 residents, which is what MLive previously had been using.
New cases per capita
Sixty counties now have a seven-day average of 150 cases or more per million residents, the MDHHS cutoff for Level E, its highest category of risk.
The statewide average is now 263 cases per million residents.
Below are the state’s six risk levels for daily new cases and the breakdown of Michigan 83 counties.
- Level E (over 150 cases per million residents): 69 counties, from highest to lowest -- Dickinson, Delta, Iron, Gogebic, Luce, Ontonagon, Calhoun, Menominee, Marquette, Baraga, Schoolcraft, Gratiot, Mecosta, Kent, St. Joseph, Emmet, Cass, Ottawa, Barry, Clinton, Ionia, Muskegon, Oceana, Saginaw, Midland, Presque Isle, Newaygo, Berrien, Branch, Van Buren, Montcalm, Charlevoix, Roscommon, Isabella, Osceola, Otsego, Jackson, Kalamazoo, Mason, Gladwin, Bay, Macomb, Allegan, Cheboygan, Houghton, Genesee, Eaton, Clare, Livingston, Washtenaw, Grand Traverse, Oakland, Tuscola, Benzie, Ogemaw, Antrim, St. Clair, Shiawassee, Hillsdale, Arenac, Lenawee, Manistee, Ingham, Montmorency, Lapeer, Iosco, Alger, Monroe and Wayne.
- Level D (70-150 cases per million): 12 counties, from highest to lowest -- Sanilac, Mackinac, Kalkaska, Keweenaw, Lake, Leelanau, Huron, Wexford, Alpena, Chippewa, Missaukee and Crawford.
- Level C (40-70 cases per million): Oscoda.
- Level B (20-40 cases per million): Alcona.
- Level A (7-20 cases per million): None.
- Low (Under 7 cases per million): None.
The map below is shaded based on the state’s six levels. The arrows indicate whether the total number of new cases reported between Oct. 23-29 has gone up or down compared to the previous seven days (Oct. 16-22).
Readers can put their cursor over a county to see the underlying data. If you can’t see the map, click here. (Hint: You can drag the map with your cursor to see the entire U.P.)
Latest on coronavirus testing
No counties are ranked in the two highest risk categories but the number in the lowest category continues to shrink. On Thursday, 12 counties were in the lowest category; today, it’s six.
Below are the state’s six risk levels for positivity rates on coronavirus tests and the breakdown of Michigan’s 83 counties.
- Level E (over 20%): None.
- Level D (15-20%): None.
- Level C (10-15%): Eight counties -- from highest to lowest, Delta, Gogebic, Dickinson, Muskegon, Cass, Van Buren, Ontonagon and Calhoun.
- Level B (7-10%): 25 counties -- Macomb, Montmorency, Barry, Saginaw, Osceola, Kalamazoo, Emmet, Otsego, Luce, Mecosta, Genesee, St. Joseph, Clinton, Kent, Allegan, Newaygo, Ottawa, Berrien, Oceana, Ionia, Midland, Marquette, Oakland and Eaton.
- Level A (3-7%): 44 counties -- from highest to lowest, Iron, Montcalm, Branch, Grand Traverse, Livingston, Roscommon, Alcona, Hillsdale, Jackson, Menominee, Monroe, Arenac, St. Clair, Shiawassee, Isabella, Iosco, Bay, Houghton, Wayne, Antrim, Lapeer, Presque Isle, Kalkaska, Mackinac, Ingham, Tuscola, Clare, Benzie, Mason, Missaukee, Sanilac, Crawford, Chippewa, Lenawee, Wexford, Charlevoix, Washtenaw, Gladwin, Cheboygan, Keweenaw, Lake, Ogemaw, Manistee, Huron and Oscoda.
- Low (under 3%): six counties -- from highest to lowest, Gratiot, Leelanau, Alger, Alpena, Baraga and Schoolcraft.
The searchable database below shows the seven-day average testing rate by county. If you can’t see the chart, click here.
Below are online databases that allow readers to look up county-level data for each of the last 20 days.
Cases by day it was reported to the state
First is a chart showing new cases reported to the state each day for the past 20 days. This is based on when a confirmed coronavirus test is reported to the state, which means the patient first became sick days before.
You can call up a chart for any county, and you can put your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases. (As of Sept. 1, the state stopped reporting numbers on Sundays.)
(In a few instances, a county reported a negative number (decline) in daily new cases, following a retroactive reclassification by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. In those instances, we subtracted cases from the prior date and put 0 in the reported date.)
The next chart below shows new cases for the past 20 days based on onset of symptoms. In this chart, numbers for the most recent days are incomplete because of the lag time between people getting sick and getting a confirmed coronavirus test result, which can take up to a week or more.
You can call up a chart for any county, and you can put your cursor over a bar to see the date and number of cases.
More localized maps
Below are two maps created by the EpiBayes research group at University of Michigan’s Department of Epidemiology, which has access to sub-county data collected by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
The interactive maps break down the state into 10 kilometer hexogons to provide more a more localized look at where coronavirus cases are occurring. You can click here to get to the research project website.
The first map looks at confirmed and probable coronavirus cases in the past week. You can click on a hexagon to see the underlying data.
You can use the triangle button at the upper right of the map to toggle to the second map, which shows total confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic.
Latest daily report
On Thursday, the state reported 3,675 new cases of coronavirus and 18 new deaths.
The state’s seven-day average is now 2,623 new cases a day, a new record, compared to an average of 1,682 a week ago.
The map below shows total confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths since the start of the pandemic. You can put your cursor over a county to see the underlying numbers.
For more statewide data, visit MLive’s coronavirus data page, here. To find a testing site near you, check out the state’s online test finder, here, send an email to COVID19@michigan.gov, or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.
For more data on COVID-19 in Michigan, visit https://www.mlive.com/coronavirus/data/.
Read more on MLive:
Michigan reports a record 3,338 new coronavirus cases in one day
Community spread reaches Mackinac Island after it dodged coronavirus this summer
6 reasons Michigan is seeing a surge in coronavirus numbers
Coronavirus is surging in Michigan. Whitmer’s authority has been gutted. Now what?