Charts showing spike in Michigan's coronavirus cases are misleading

As America reopens, Michigan has been added to the list of states where coronavirus cases are reportedly already on the rise.

But the spike is unfathomable — more than 5,000 new cases in one day, according to SmartNews. Other news outlets such as Newsweek and NPR have cited an increase in Michigan COVID-19 cases but have included information explaining the increase.

Did Michigan see an increase in cases and deaths?

The short answer? Yes and no. 

Last week, Michigan began releasing new data that included probable, not just confirmed, cases and deaths. 

The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services defines a confirmed case as a person who has had a positive diagnostic laboratory test for the novel coronavirus. A probable case is defined as a person with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 and an epidemiological link to a confirmed case.

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This change added more than 5,000 cases and more than 200 deaths that happened over two months to one weekend of the state's reporting on the COVID-19 outbreak.

"Identifying probable cases and deaths provides a more complete picture about how COVID-19 has impacted the state," said Lynn Sutfin, a spokeswoman for the MDHHS, in an e-mail.

How it works

Michigan has had 59,278 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 5,711 deaths as of Wednesday afternoon. With the addition of probable case data, the totals rise to 65,182 cases and 5,955 deaths.  

Currently, Michigan is reporting information for both the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 and probable cases separately. But other sites have combined the two figures.

The Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 case tracker shows Michigan's total confirmed cases as the higher figure, about 65,000 cumulative cases. NPR, SmartNews, Newsweek and many other sites use Johns Hopkins data or sites like the New York Times that include probable cases now in their totals.

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"When states have data on probable cases and deaths, the dashboard includes those in (their) totals," a Johns Hopkins University spokesperson said. "Confirmed cases include presumptive positive cases and probable cases, in accordance with CDC guidelines as of April 14."

Depending on how the data is charted, the additional cases can look like a spike — leading people to wonder what's happening as Michigan reopens, too.

Specific dates for probable cases and deaths were not available from the state at the time the data were released. Therefore there is no way to accurately incorporate probable cases into new cases by day and track the rate of change in cases.

Based on the number of people testing positive for the COVID-19 virus alone, cases and deaths have been trending downward in Michigan. As of Wednesday afternoon, the seven-day rolling average of new COVID-19 confirmed cases was roughly 200 per day. 

Contact Kristi Tanner: ktanner@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter: @MIdatalove